Total employment increased by 272,000 in May, coming in above the average monthly gain year-to-date. Despite this uptick in job creation, there are several signs that overall labor demand is cooling and moving closer in line with labor supply. Nearly half of last month’s hiring was concentrated in just two main employment sectors, which includes roles in government. It is likely that public sector staffing needs will ebb in the months ahead as budget shortfalls are addressed. The unemployment rate also inched up 10 basis points from April to 4.0 percent in May, its highest mark since January 2022. This shift followed an April decline in the number of available positions to 8.06 million open jobs, the lowest level since February 2021. Equating to 1.2 available roles for every job seeker, this is the closest the margin has been since June 2021.

Marcus & Millichap’s Research Brief: Employment June 2024

Key Highlights Include:

  • Labor market moving closer to equilibrium even amid strong hiring
  • Office, lab space could benefit from high-skilled job growth
  • Rising hospitality staff counts reflect restaurant performance
  • June or September interest rate cut unlikely
  • Global policy shifts