Pricing pressures fell to over three-year low.

The creation of 206,000 jobs in June brings total net hiring for the second quarter to 532,000, the lowest three-month total for employment growth since January of 2021. Much of the recent hiring slowdown has come from industries tied to the business cycle, including net job losses recorded during June in both the professional and business services sector as well as retail trade. Year-to-date job creation has been stronger in more cyclically agnostic fields such as government, education and health care, a bolstering force for the economy as long as private and public sources of funding for such endeavors hold out. As of 2022, more than 50 of the 75 most populous cities reported budget deficits. Over time, more municipalities could curtail hiring in public sector roles, including education, as budgets are balanced.

Key Highlights Include:

  • Cooler housing costs have yet to show up in CPI
  • Capital costs start to ease
  • Slowing inflation aids household formation
  • Despite softening, manufacturing sector still on solid footing

Marcus & Millichap’s Full Report:
Inflation Research Brief: August 2024